For years, critics dismissed Vice President JD Vance’s warning that mass illegal immigration was making housing less affordable. Now, a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is lending empirical support to that claim.
Vance highlighted the report this week, arguing that the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration is already helping ease pressure on the housing market.
“Stopping the flood of illegal migrants into this country will bring down home prices and make housing affordable again for young Americans who are trying to start a family,” Vance said.
According to the Dallas Fed study, the surge in unauthorized immigration between 2021 and 2024 created a significant demand shock in local housing markets. Researchers found that while unauthorized immigrant workers largely filled jobs without reducing local wages, the rapid population growth increased demand for housing faster than new homes could be built.
The numbers were significant.
The study found that a rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows equal to just 1% of a local area’s workforce increased home prices by 2.2% and rents by 1.4%.
Overall, researchers estimated that unauthorized immigration accounted for roughly 30% of home price growth and 20% of rent increases during the housing boom in the average local market.
Those findings closely mirror arguments Vance made throughout the 2024 campaign, including during his vice presidential debate, where he faced repeated pushback from moderators and media fact-checkers.
After the study’s release, a spokesperson for Vance criticized those earlier claims from major media outlets.
“Once again, the useless attempts to fact-check the Vice President have proven that the mainstream media is nothing more than a propaganda arm for the Left,” the spokesperson said.
The Trump administration argues that sharply reducing illegal border crossings will not solve the housing crisis by itself, but says it removes one major source of demand that contributed to rising prices during the Biden years.
While housing affordability remains a challenge in many parts of the country, administration officials say the new Federal Reserve research validates what they have argued from the beginning: immigration policy can have a measurable impact on housing costs.